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JAC Advance Access originally published online on September 19, 2005
Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 2005 56(5):983-984; doi:10.1093/jac/dki342
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© The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

Correspondence

Give them some clues: modelling antibiotic resistance

J. T. Magee*

Communicable Diseases Surveillance Centre, Abton House, Wedal Road, Cardiff CF4 3QX, Wales, UK

* Corresponding author. Tel: +44-29-2052-1997; Fax: +44-29-2052-1987; E-mail: john.magee{at}nphs.wales.nhs.uk

Keywords: resistance , modelling , mathematical modelling

The ratchet paper1 has provoked an encouraging amount of correspondence.2–4 Mathematical modelling is a powerful tool in comparison of the ramifications of our assumptions and hypotheses against real data. However, as the correspondence indicates, firm detailed data on the behaviour of resistance clinically, in individual patients, hospitals and the general population are scarce. We need to collect (and find mechanisms to share) such data much more assiduously and systematically.5 This is not a plea for huge databases that will remain unused. Rather it is a path to completion of the scientific cycle—hypothesis, modelling, comparison with reality and revision of assumptions—that will achieve the deep understanding required to stem the rise in resistance. We have a pressing clinical problem of worldwide significance that interests the modellers. They need hypotheses with clear overt assumptions to model and data for comparisons—give them some clues!

Transparency declarations

The author has no affiliations with the pharmaceutical industry or related commercial concerns.

References

1. Magee JT. The resistance ratchet: theoretical implications of cyclic selection pressure. J Antimicrob Chemother 2005; 56: 427–30.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

2. Huovinen P. Mathematical model—tell us the future! J Antimicrob Chemother 2005; 56: 257–8.[Abstract/Free Full Text]

3. Magee JT. Resistance ratchet effect: author's response. J Antimicrob Chemother 2005; 56: 431.[Free Full Text]

4. Tam VH, Nikolaou M. Mathematical modelling of resistance emergence. J Antimicrob Chemother 2005; 56: 983.

5. Magee JT, Heginbothom ML, Mason BW. Finding a strategy: the case for co-operative research on resistance epidemiology. J Antimicrob Chemother 2005; 55: 628–33.[Abstract/Free Full Text]


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This Article
Right arrow Extract Freely available
Right arrow FREE Full Text (PDF) Freely available
Right arrow All Versions of this Article:
56/5/983-a    most recent
dki342v1
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
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Right arrow Articles by Magee, J. T.
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PubMed
Right arrow Articles by Magee, J. T.
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